The China Boom: Why China Will Not Rule the World (Contemporary Asia in the World)
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Many thought China's rise would fundamentally remake the global order. Yet, much like other developing nations, the Chinese state now finds itself in a status quo characterized by free trade and American domination. Through a cutting-edge historical, sociological, and political analysis, Ho-fung Hung details the competing interests and economic realities that temper the dream of Chinese supremacy―forces that are stymieing growth throughout the global South.
Hung focuses on four common misconceptions: that China could undermine orthodoxy by offering an alternative model of growth; that China is radically altering power relations between the East and the West; that China is capable of diminishing the global power of the United States; and that the Chinese economy would restore the world's wealth after the 2008 financial crisis. His work reveals how much China depends on the existing order and how the interests of the Chinese elites maintain these ties. Through its perpetuation of the dollar standard and its addiction to U.S. Treasury bonds, China remains bound to the terms of its own prosperity, and its economic practices of exploiting debt bubbles are destined to fail. Hung ultimately warns of a postmiracle China that will grow increasingly assertive in attitude while remaining constrained in capability.
global inequality, and China will even start to become a net contributor to the increase in global inequality (see also Winters and Yusuf 2007; Hung 2008, 2009a; Hung and Kucinskas 2011). Even in the second scenario, in which China maintains its hyper-economic growth in the next few decades, its contribution to reduction in global income inequality will diminish and then reverse after an inflection point, everything else being equal. A rapidly growing economy reduces international inequality
China maintains its robust average growth rate during 1980–2010 for the next thirty years, international inequality will continue to decrease for a while after 2010. But it will then increase again, ending the temporary retreat of global inequality during the China boom. A comparison of the 2010–2040 projections with and without China shows that China will become a net contributor to global inequality increase after about 2018. Of course, the simulation in figure 4.4 is much more simplistic than
East will eventually lead to a showdown between Western civilization and the Sinic–Islamic alliance. This persistent view of the decline of the West and the concomitant rise of China’s global power has become so popular that U.S. politicians have started running campaign commercials accusing their opponents of being responsible for American decline and an imminent Chinese domination of the country.1 But more sober writers find that the perception of falling U.S. global power and the rise of
dollar. China’s Addiction to U.S. Treasuries Chapter 3 noted that the rise of China’s export sector was enabled by a series of policy changes in the mid-1990s that precipitated an expanding stream of low-wage rural migrant laborers. This export-oriented path of growth was also facilitated by China’s currency peg with the United States that kept Chinese exports competitively cheap. This path is a replication and extension of the earlier export-oriented growth of Japan and other East Asian
——. 2007. Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the Twenty-First Century. London: Verso. Arrighi, Giovanni, and Jessica Drangel. 1986. “The Stratification of the World Economy: An Exploration of the Semiperipheral Zone.” Review 10, no. 1: 9–74. Arrighi, Giovanni, and Beverly Silver. 1999. Chaos and Governance in the Modern World-System. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Arrighi, Giovanni, Beverly Silver, and Benjamin Brewer. 2003. “Industrial Convergence and the Persistence of the